BUY:BARTRONICS

Bartronics India aims to cross turnover of Rs 1000 crore by 2010. This growth will be associated with higher realisations. "There is a possibility of achieving around Rs 500 crore as the topline for the current financial year."

50% order from indian gov and another 50% from U.S gov.

Smart card usage will increase drastically coming year.

Death of equities?

There is bad news everywhere. Inflation is on a rise on the back of sharp spike in crude oil and food prices. Interest rates rising as well thus adding to pressure on household expenses and corporate profitability. The domestic economy is said to be entering a 'cyclical' slowdown phase. The global economy is 'actually' facing an acute banking and financial crisis.
And the stock prices are going down the drain, literally! The BSE-Sensex is lower by 35% from its all time high achieved just five months back. Now, this is just the benchmark index. There are innumerable other stocks that are down almost 80% and 90% from their highs.

Ice age for stocks?

So, have we entered a stage of 'ice age' for the stock markets, where investors go numb and stocks stop rising at all (and continue to fall)? Have we just seen the 'death of equities'?
Think otherwise...

We are of the belief that these times are providing you with investment opportunities of a lifetime. The global offshoring opportunity, India's US$ 500 bn infrastructure spending over the next few years and rising household consumption on discretionary items (like communication, transportation and entertainment) are just a few that you can look out for as evolving wonderful investment themes for the next 5, 10 or even 15 years.
So, what should you do?

The need of the hour for you, as an investor, is to get ahead of the trends, both existing and those that are yet to unfold. You need not let the current environment fool you. Hold on to the quality stocks that you own. In fact, buy more of those, if they've fallen a lot. However do not borrow to buy stocks, at whatever attractive levels they are trading. Do not indulge into trading in derivatives. They are 'financial weapons of mass destruction' as Warren Buffett once famously said...and rightly so!
Have faith in your portfolio of quality stocks and your decision-making capabilities. Be convinced that in the long term, the market is always going up. It always has. Sometimes, it can be difficult to see beyond current circumstances. Your investing success lies in getting over this very difficulty.
As Buffett says, "A great IQ is not needed to do well as an investor, just the ability to detach yourself from the crowd."

High inflation: May be a good time to invest

Trouble is a strange creature — it never comes alone. Just ask any Indian investor who is currently stuck in the market and he will bear this out. With most of us having got used to an extended period of stupendous economic growth, the ongoing crisis seems to have caught virtually everyone on the wrong foot.

Not only are equity investors sulking because their portfolios are melting away like an ice-candy on a hot summer afternoon , but even the risk-averse investors who trust bank deposits over everything else are feeling cheated, as double-digit inflation is eating into the real value of their savings. In fact, at current levels, the real return from a bank deposit is actually negative, given that the rate of inflation now stands higher than the deposit rate. Even the one asset, which seemed to be inflation proof — real estate — is now starting to show signs of softening. And if the performance of real estate stocks were anything to go by, then one will have to say that the worst for real estate prices is yet to come.

So, in a market such as this, the question that everyone is asking is that does one invest with an eye on the long term or just wait for the proverbial bottom to be reached? We believe that this might be an excellent time to enter the market, especially for those who have a longterm outlook. While double-digit inflation is hammering the equity market, ironically the truth is that it has made stocks a compelling investment choice by ruling out fixed-income instruments.

Moreover, during times of crisis such as these, certain defensive stocks enjoy a bull run of their own, as money flows in from all directions to seek a safe refuge in them. These stocks, generally, have a strong cash flow, dividend payouts that match earnings growth, low debt or inelastic demand for the products or services that these companies make.

More often than not, these companies are dominant forces in their industries to such an extent that they can become price makers and thereby insulate their bottomlines from the vagaries of inflation. They need not necessarily possess all of the above, but very often they will meet more than a couple of the above-mentioned criteria. Given our belief that in even the worst of markets, there is always hope we at Investor’s Guide decided to search for some compelling ideas that long-term investors can enter at the current levels and probably accumulate further if the market continued to slide.

In order to pick this rather select band of stocks, we looked at the financial performance of leading companies across sectors during the last economic downturn, which began in 1997. It was pretty similar to the current downturn in that, it too was preceded by a high inflationary period. At its peak inflation, which peaked in 1998, soared to around 13%. This was followed by a period of stagnation in corporate earnings.

And this was clearly reflected in the trajectory of the Sensex, which stayed flat during this period. In fact, if not for the traction provided by IT stocks such as Infosys, Wipro and Satyam during the dot-com run, the Sensex would have done even worse. Sans the IT pack, it was a bad period for old economy companies. Companies ranging from sectors as diverse as capital goods, cement, steel, construction, automobiles and hospitality among others, all witnessed slow topline growth coupled with declining or stagnant profitability.

However, if we exclude the big names of old economy, leading companies in quite a few sectors displayed strong earning and dividends growth during this period. In many cases, the market recognised this and there was a corresponding rise in the market cap of these companies. Even when the market failed to reward the growth of these leaders, they were more than made up by generous dividend payouts by these companies. Nonetheless, shareholders gained. Most of these slowdown busters are still around and we expect them to outshine the broader market once again. Especially, given the fact that this may not be a full-blown slowdown as we witnessed during that period, the recovery may take place much soon.

10 great investing rules

An old saying goes, "You can't build wealth by buying things you don't need, with money you don't have, to impress people you don't like." So how do you build wealth? Read on...

There are basically only four roads to wealth:

• You can marry it (don't laugh, some do);
• You can inherit it (others do that);
• You can get a windfall (from a lawsuit settlement, lottery, or some other unexpected good fortune); or
• You can accumulate it.

Most of us are stuck with option #4 - accumulate it. To do so, you need to understand how to manage cash flow. First, look at your annual earnings and multiply that figure by your working years. Not counting inflation (that is, pay raises along the way), the result may total several million dollars.

Whether you will have that several million dollars by retirement, though, depends on how you manage your cash flow - and how you answer the following questions: What do you need now, what do you want now, and what can you save and invest for the future?
Here are ten time-tested rules that can weather the stormiest market cycles.

Rules #1: Live within your means

This includes managing debt and learning to budget. Such boring topics may not be the most exciting things about becoming wealthy, but they may be the most critical.

Consumer-driven economies relentlessly hammer away at why we must buy this item or that gadget so we can have the appearance of being successful, happy, and altogether "with it." So it takes financial discipline and sensible behavior to successfully accumulate money and grow wealthy.

Possibly the biggest trap out there is easy credit, which lets us buy numerous things we might not need. Comedians have pointed out the foolishness: "You buy something that's 10 per cent off and charge it on a 20 per cent interest credit card!" And US newspaper columnist Earl Wilson opined, "Nowadays there are three classes of people - the Haves, the Have-Nots, and the Have-Not-Paid-For-What-They-Haves."

Learning to live within your means leads to a freer life - debt can be a mean master instead of a worthy servant. Save first, spend second. If you do so, building wealth will be a lot easier for you.

Rule #2: Save aggressively

This does not mean "invest aggressively." Rather, it means making it an absolute priority to set aside 10 per cent of your income right off the top, and even more if your goals tell you to do that. The longer you wait to start saving, the larger the percentage of your current pay you will have to save to reach your goal.
If you can save aggressively, you will be surprised how that "nest egg" will start to compound. Look at any chart of compounding. It has been said that it's the last compounding that makes you wealthy.
In other words, $20,000 becoming $40,000 doesn't seem like a lot of headway, but when the $40,000 compounds to $80,000, and the $80,000 to $160,000, and finally the $160,000 to $320,000, we're now talking about some serious money. Two more "doublings" and this account will be worth over $1.2 million. Those who spend first and save later inevitably end up working for those who have learned to save first, spend second.

Rule #3: Dollar-cost average

When buying shares, remove emotions from your investing by automatically buying more shares or equity mutual fund units when they are cheap. Emotional investing gets too many people in trouble. Statistics continue to show that we tend to buy when things are going up and sell when they are going down - in other words, we tend to buy high and sell low. Dollar-cost averaging not only removes emotions from investing, but it helps you buy low. Here's how:
By putting a constant amount into the market, as the price slips, you buy more and more number of cheaper shares or fund units and thereby reduce your average cost.
For example, let's say you are investing $100 a month into a fund. In the first month, the price of the fund is $10 per share and you buy 10 shares. The next month, the price has dropped to $8 per share, so your $100 buys you 12.5 shares. The next month, the price has fallen again, to $5 a share, and you buy 20 shares. In the fourth month, the price ticks back up to $7 per share. Your total investment so far is $400.
If you're like most people, though, when you look at your statement and see that by the end of the third month the price has fallen to half, you would probably think you were losing money hand over fist. Especially after a fund continues to decline month after month, investors lose patience and start to bail. They're looking for "better returns," but they don't understand what's going on with the math.
At $5 a share, it feels as though you're down 50 per cent (because the price started at $10 per share). However, you own 42.5 shares, which, when multiplied by $5 a share, equals $212.50 - and you've invested $300. In the fourth month, the price gets back up to $7 per share. Although it might feel as though you're still down because the price started at $10 per share, you're actually within a couple of dollars of your break-even point. You own 56.79 shares, which when multiplied by $7 equals $397.53, on an investment of $400.
Of course, if the fund or market continues to go down and never comes back up, you can't be guaranteed a profit. But this would happen rarely, if ever. Dollar-cost averaging - by investing a fixed amount in regular intervals - is the best way to make money in a variable market over time.
The most difficult part is having the discipline to keep doing it. Investors should be willing to consider their ability to invest over an extended period of time. Remember, you need a longer time horizon when investing in the stock market.

Rule #4: Diversify

No investment is risk free; only a diversified portfolio can mitigate the risks of market cycles. We've all been warned against putting all our eggs in one basket; even Warren Buffett said, "It's better to be approximately right than definitely wrong." By "approximately right," he was referring to diversification.
If one piece of your portfolio is doing substantially better than other parts, the natural inclination is to load up on the part doing the best and forsake those not doing well. But the result will be an under-diversified portfolio that will probably be much more volatile - and the risks may be on the downward side.
Also, proper diversification does not mean any old bunch of mutual funds or stocks, but a proper allocation among stocks, bonds, real estate, fixed assets, and other investments. It also means diversifying within those investment categories.
For example, your stocks should include a mix of midcap, large-, and small-cap stocks as well as growth, blend, and value stocks. You should have bonds that are long, medium, and short term, as well as high grade, mid grade, and low grade.
A mutual fund may offer more diversification than you could afford by owning the same stocks individually. But owning a handful of mutual funds may not offer the diversification you seek unless you research the funds' holdings carefully. That's because many funds have substantial "overlap." In other words, fund A from mutual fund family X may have many of the same stocks as fund B from fund family Y.

Rule #5: Be patient

Warren Buffet says, "The market has a very efficient way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient."
But waiting is very hard to do. How long are you willing to hold an asset that is not performing well? One year? Two, three, or four? If you look at the history of asset classes over time, you will see that an asset can be "out of favor" for several years in a row.
You have to be prepared to wait. Don't think you can time when bonds will perform and stocks will get hot. If someone really could do that, he would own the world by now. So remember: Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Rule #6: Understand volatility

Very few people truly understand the risk and volatility inevitably baked into every investment portfolio. Without getting into its complexity, every variable investment has produced a range of returns over its lifetime, and this range, or deviation, can be plotted on a chart.
So, it's important to understand what the investment category's "average" annual return means in order to prepare yourself for its volatility. For example, does a 10 per cent average mean the investment was up 73 per cent and down 30 per cent and happened to average 10 per cent? Or was it up 15 per cent, and then down 5 per cent to average 10 per cent?
Many investors are fooled by averages - they chase the 70 per cent return after it has happened, when the likelihood of a repeat performance is slim (which we'll discuss more in Rule #7). Yogi Berra is rumored to have said, "Averages don't mean nuthin". If they did, you could have one foot in the oven and the other in a bucket of ice and feel perfectly comfortable."
Over time, returns from investments regress to a mean. "Regression to the mean" simply means that highs and lows will average out so that your return regresses to a certain number or range. Understand an investment's range of returns so you know what to expect annually, and over time.
Markets move from fear to greed, and back to fear. So there are times when the market is "overvalued" and other times when it is "undervalued." Warren Buffett said of the stock buying and selling decisions made at his company, Berkshire Hathaway, "We strive to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful."

Rule #7: Don't chase returns

If we know from Rule #6 that a 10 per cent average annual return does not really mean a 10 per cent return each year, why do we still fall for an ad touting a fund that produces 20 per cent annually or some other phenomenal return?
Human nature. And maybe we even convince ourselves that for the chance to experience a year or two of 70 per cent gains, we're willing to stomach the years of 30 per cent losses that also fall within the fund's range of returns.
So, before chasing that incredible return, find out how the investment did during the last bad market for that asset class. Find out its risk, and ask yourself whether you can stomach a bumpy ride over the long term.
Another Buffettism: "The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it is going up." So before chasing a return, always consider how likely it is that the investment will continue to produce that return - and whether it's really worth the cost of cashing out of another, perhaps only temporarily depressed, investment to do so.

Rule #8: Periodically rebalance your portfolio

You may decide that your investment mix should be, for example, 50 per cent growth stocks, 20 per cent value stocks, and 30 per cent bonds. But asset classes vary in performance over time, so after a year or so, the portfolio balance will start to shift as one asset "overperforms" and another one "underperforms."
Emotions would tell you to sell the underperformers and buy the overachievers. If you want to remain adequately diversified, however, you would rebalance by selling some of the overperformers and buying some of the underachievers - probably just the opposite of what your emotions will tell you.
So, if you strive to put your portfolio back to its original allocations from time to time (annually, semi-annually, or possibly even quarterly), you will be taking gains from the best-performing assets (selling high) and buying those temporarily out of favor (buying low). But it takes discipline to keep your emotions in check.

Rule #9: Manage your taxes

Have you ever considered how taxes are your biggest expense in life - more than mortgage expense, education expense, or any other expense? So, you must take advantage of all tax breaks available - each and every single one of them.

Rule #10: Get advice

Never underestimate the value of good advice. Someone who manages investments full time certainly will find things you have overlooked or done wrong. A good financial adviser is like a personal trainer for your finances and can get you on track and keep you there until your goals are met.
And even more critical than getting the advice is being sure you consistently follow your game plan. The greatest problem for most people is procrastination and erratic investment behavior. So get started, get advice, and get going down the road to wealth - and steadfastly follow through.

Are your investments beating inflation?

Inflation means a rise in prices of goods and services over time. It is calculated by taking into consideration a set of goods and services, and then the prices of the items in that set are compared to prices one year ago. In India, inflation is measured based on the wholesale price index (WPI) which measures the change in prices of a selection of goods at wholesale rates.

Inflation gradually reduces the purchasing power of money, and therefore it becomes very important for investors to understand the impact of inflation on their investments.

Inflation means a rise in prices of goods and services over time. It is calculated by taking into consideration a set of goods and services, and then the prices of the items in that set are compared to prices one year ago.

In India, inflation is measured based on the wholesale price index (WPI) which measures the change in prices of a selection of goods at wholesale rates.

For example, if an investor deposits his money in a savings bank account which generates a return of 3.5 percent per annum, and inflation in the market is around seven percent, he is making a bad choice as his purchasing power is increasing by only 3.5 percent whereas prices of goods and services are increasing by seven percent.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in consultation with the government, sets the target for the rate of inflation in the country. This target inflation number is between four and five percent on a year to year basis.

Currently, the inflation rate is hovering around the eight percent mark. The core inflation rate and the consumer price index are ruling even higher than this level. This shows that the common man is feeling the heat of the price rise much more than what is indicated by the inflation rate.

These are some factors that are pushing inflation here:

High commodity prices

One of the prime reasons for this rise in inflation is high commodity prices. Crude oil, precious as well as industrial metals, food stuff like tea coffee etc are ruling at high prices.

Global factors

Inflation is rising at the global level too. The recent growth in developing economies is another reason for this higher inflation rate. With the sharp growth seen in developing nations, the demand for many essential commodities like energy , metals and food grains has gone up significantly, whereas the corresponding rise in the supply side has not been happening.

Domestic factors

The domestic economy is growing at around 7-8 percent per annum from the last few years. The per capita income levels have gone up and as a result the demand for many commodities has increased significantly . The growth in the stock markets and the property market in the recent past have had a positive impact on the consumer sentiments, leading to more spending.

Hedge against inflation :

Real estate:

Historically, investments in real estate have worked as a good hedge against inflation. Carefullyselected real estate properties provide high returns. However, huge funds are needed and it is not an option that offers liquidity.

Real estate investment trusts (REIT) addresses these two issues. A REIT is like mutual funds and investors can buy units of REITs. Therefore, REITs enable investors to buy shares in a company that invests in large-scale real estate projects and many buildings. REITs are not available here but the recent SEBI's draft proposal is paving the way for them to come here.

Equity:

Another way to hedge against inflation is to invest a certain portion of your funds in equities. Senior citizens and riskaverse investors should also invest a small percentage of their investment portfolio in equities. Investments in equity may not necessarily be just stocks - investors can do it through equity or balanced mutual funds too.

Commodities:

Investments in precious metals (gold, silver and platinum) is another popular way of hedging against inflation. However, investors should bear in mind the prices of precious metals can be quite volatile. Therefore, investments in precious metals would be a good addition to your investment portfolio as a hedge against inflation if they are purchased at the right time.

Want to earn like Warren Buffett?- 24 tips

"An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes. " Warren Buffett

One of the world's most successful investors, Warren Buffett is the richest man on earth. Chairman of the Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's wealth jumped by $10 billion to hit $62 billion during 2007. Buffett's life is an inspiration for investors across the globe.

So what makes the world's wealthiest man so rich? Buffett believes that successful investing is about having common sense, patience and independent research.

'How Buffett Does It', by James Pardoe is a great guide for investing in any market. A look into Buffett's simple, yet intelligent mantras for investing and minting millions.

1. A frugal billionaire Buffett believes in simplicity. He advises investors to take easy decisions. Never buy when you are doubtful. Invest only if you understand the businesses well.

2. Focus on not losing money rather than making it. Don't own any stock for 10 minutes that you wouldn't own for 10 years.

3. A proponent of value investing, he believes that one must take decisions on his own. He doesn't believe in listening to analysts or brokers. The best investing decisions come from oneself.

"It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results."

4. Buffett advises to invest in 'old economy' businesses, companies, which have been around for fifty years and will continue to have a long innings.

5. We have often heard of people suffering heart attacks when markets crash. Well, Buffett advocates a sound temperament for stock market success.

6. You don't need to be a genius to succeed in the stock markets. People who can stay cool will succeed in the long run. Always keep in mind the hidden costs, from commissions on active stock trading to high mutual fund fees.

7. Buffett always looks at businesses he can understand, look at the profits in the past, long-term potential of the company, good top level management of the company and companies that have a good value proposition. The strategy is to think about the business in the long term.

"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right."

8. Invest in businesses with great management. Always keep a track of the management of the company. The top decision makers have a lot to do with the company's performance.

9. One of Buffet's biggest strengths is independent thinking. Many people go by what the experts says or what others do but belief in one's own judgement is the key to stock market success.

10. Patience pays, says Buffet. He says one must not worry too much about the price of the stocks. What's more important is the nature of business of the company, earnings capability and its future potential.

11. Don't target just stocks, look at businesses. How a company performs is key to its stock market performance. You must know the track record of a company before you invest in it.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

12. Prices keep changing. Don't get worried by the ups and downs. Investing is all about creating wealth. It's important to understand the value of a stock than its price.

13. He believes that franchisee businesses are good opportunities to invest in. Avoid hi-tech, complex businesses. Look for businesses that are set to diversify and grow.

14. Never be disappointed when markets fall. Take it as a buying opportunity. Buffet says one must have lesser number of investments with more money in each lot.

15. He advises to avoid diversification. Invest in companies with sound business models. Choose a few good ones and stay invested, it will give you the benefits.

16. Doing nothing pays at times! One must not jump at price fluctuations and take impulsive decisions.

17. Don't get carried away by market forecasts. Ignore market swings and remain an investor with a good business sense.

18. Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying.

19. Make a list of companies, sectors that you find safe to invest in and try to stick to the list.

20. A sound business, strong management, good fundamental and low stock price should be a must-buy.

"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."

21. Try to ignore stock charts, says Buffett. They may not give the right indicators. A stock which may have done well earlier may not do so in future.

22. Buffet spends a lot of time on reading and more importantly thinking. Reading helps investors, so spend a lot of time reading about the stocks, companies and markets. A good investor must have a good knowledge base.

23. A good investor also needs to be efficient. Investors may have great capabilities but many do not make use of it. One needs to hone skills to meet the targets.

24. Good investors never rush to make money. They give time, thought and work on investment decisions. The mistakes that others make should be a lesson for you.

Eight mistakes to avoid while investing

Investing is not just about picking winners, but also about avoiding mistakes. Retail investors can be better off if they avoid making the following mistakes.

Overconfidence - Don't be unrealistically optimistic

A bull market makes retail investors believe that they are geniuses - after all, anything they put money into goes up. This overconfidence in their own abilities leads to a complete disregard of the risks involved. Every new generation that invests in the market ignores past experience. These new investors wrongly believe that stock prices only go up.

Don't be overconfident and don't start believing that you have superior skills compared to the market. Recognise that in a bull market you are benefiting because the whole market is going up. If those around you are getting unrealistically optimistic, start managing your risk accordingly. Remember that sometimes markets do come crashing down.

Over enthusiasm to trade - Not every ball should be hit

Good batsmen realise that some balls outside the off-stump should be left alone. Similarly, professional investors realise that sometimes its better to just stand still than to rush into a stock. Retail investors often make the mistake of "flashing outside the off-stump" because they cannot resist the temptation to trade in every opportunity. And, like an inexperienced batsman, they suffer the same fate.

Too much trading will lead to a lot of churn, extra commissions to your broker and huge tax implications for you. Some of the world's best investors follow a buy and hold strategy - you should too.

Missing the benefits of compounding of capital - Learn from Einstein

Albert Einstein is reputed to have said that compounding of capital is the 8th wonder of the world because it allows for the systematic accumulation of wealth. Even though any one in class 5 could tell you how compounding works, retail investors ignore this basic concept.

Compounding of capital can benefit you only if you leave your money uninterrupted for a long period of time. The sooner you start investing, the bigger the pool of capital you will end up with for your middle-aged and retirement years.

Don't wait to start investing only when you have a large amount of money to put to work. Start early, even if it's with a small amount. Watch this grow to a very large amount with the passage of time.

Worrying about the market - But there is no answer to your favourite question

Smart investors don't worry about the direction of the market - they worry about the business prospects of the companies whose stocks they own. Retail investors are obsessed with the question "Where do you think the market will go?" This is a wrong question to ask. In fact, no one knows the answer.

The right question to ask is whether the company, whose stock you are buying, is going to be a much bigger business 10 years from now or not? Don't take a view on the market, take a view on long-term industry trends and how your chosen companies can create value by exploiting these trends.

Timing the market - Around 99% of investors will fail in this strategy

Its very difficult to time the market, i.e, be smart enough to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. Professionals understand that timing the market is a wasted exercise.

Retail investors always wait for that elusive best opportunity to get in or to get out. But by waiting they let great investment opportunities go by. You should use systematic or regular investment plans to make investments. You'll have to make fewer decisions and yet can accumulate substantial wealth over time. Selling in times of panic - You should be doing the opposite The best opportunity to buy is when the markets are falling and there is fear in the minds of investors. Yet, many retail investors do exactly the opposite. They sell when the markets are falling and buy only when the markets are high. This way they end up losing twice - by selling low and buying high, when they should be doing exactly the opposite. If nothing has changed about the long-term outlook for the company that you own, then you should not sell this company's stock. Use this opportunity to buy more of the same stock in falling markets. Some of the world's biggest fortunes were made by buying when others were selling in panic.

Focusing on past performance - Its like driving forward while looking backwards

It is a very common perception that because a stock has done well in the past one year, it's the best stock to invest in. Retail investors do not realise that often the best performers will underperform the market in the future because their optimistic outlook has already been priced into the stock.

Don't go after hot sectors that are currently producing high returns. Don't let greed drive your investment decisions. Look forward to see whether the gains produced in the past can get repeated or not. Short-term trends of the past might not get repeated in the future.

Diversifying too much will kill you - Investing is all about staying alive

Beyond a point, having too many names in a portfolio can be counterproductive. You might end up duplicating, or end up taking too much exposure to a sector. Over-diversification can upset your portfolio, especially when you have not done enough research on all the companies you have invested in.

If you are an active investor in the stock market, maintain a manageable portfolio of 15-25 names. Instead of adding new names to this portfolio, recognise ideal ones. Then back them with more capital. In the long-run, this will produce better returns for you than adding another 20 names to your portfolio. Investing is all is about patience and discipline. By avoiding mistakes you can improve the long-term performance of your portfolio, whatever the economic conditions prevailing in the market.

Seven things to remember in bear run

The year 2008 has been unkind to investors so far. Many have suffered huge losses. Who knows, there could be more pain ahead. It’s worth reminding ourselves of basic lessons that every retail investor ought to keep in mind to avoid, or at least minimise, losses in one’s portfolio.

1. High rewards don’t come without taking high risk.

During a bull market, retail investors get taken in by the rise in the stock market. They don’t want to be left out. So, they rush in and buy in an indiscriminate way, without realising that they might be taking on too much risk. Remember, if you chase high returns, high risk will follow you. Let’s take the example of publicly-listed real estate sector in India. The industry has a very favourable long-term future. However, the rapid rise in the sector’s stock prices over the past year made a short-term investment in these stocks a risky bet. As it turns out, the risks have been borne out and this sector has collapsed spectacularly. Understand your own risk profile and how you emotionally deal with volatility in stock prices.

2. Understand what you own — don’t always rely on the latest tip or prediction.

If you knew the secret location to some buried treasure, would you share it with others around you? If someone really has a hot tip on an investment that is going to earn high returns, always ask why they are sharing it with you. In today’s wired world, it is possible even for retail investors to understand, even if in basic ways, what is it that you are about to invest in — what does the company do, who its customers are, is the company profitable and so on. You must form your own view about the company’s prospects. Stay away from fast risers. The more you understand investments that you have made, the more confident you will become.

3. Leverage is a double-edged sword that can destroy you in falling markets.

The recent collapse of various hedge funds and banks has shown that living on borrowed money can be dangerous. During good times, leverage can amplify your returns. But in rough times, it can kill you. Currently, even the world’s best risk managers on Wall Street are having a tough time dealing with their leveraged exposure to markets. Be careful about making investments using leverage. Remember, nobody is going to flash an emergency light announcing the arrival of the next crisis.

4. Keep some of your powder dry — you don’t always need to be fully invested.

This is where the professionals really distinguish themselves from amateur retail investors, because they keep some cash available to take advantage of falling prices. Professionals think of a correction in stock prices as a sale in stocks. But to benefit from these sales, they keep some cash ready. They don’t feel the need to be fully invested all the time. If you use up all your cash to make your investments, you will never be able to take advantage of the cut price sales that will happen in times of severe correction like now. Corrections occur periodically — be prepared to take advantage of these situations.

5. Build portfolio on a strong foundation.

Just like you cannot build a house on a weak foundation, your stock portfolio also needs to be built on the back of strong companies and predictable stability. The more junk you have and poor quality stocks you own, the quicker your portfolio will also collapse during a correction. Weak companies with unfavourable long-term business prospects, weak balance sheets and poor operating performance might look tempting as they promise short-term growth. They may go up faster than the market in a bull phase, but come racing down at the slightest evidence of any stock market trouble.Build your portfolio on the back of stable, blue-chip companies that have long track records of success across economic conditions.

6. Keep a wishlist of companies.

Smart investors keep a wishlist of companies whose shares they want to buy when the opportunity and price are right. Corrections will give you the opportunity to pick through names. But, like we said in point 4 above, you need to have some dry powder to be able to add your wishlist to your portfolio. Warren Buffett has been known to keep his eye on his wishlist companies for decades before he finally finds a good entry point for an investment.

7. Invest for the long-term.

Serious investors put money to work for the long-term. They don’t get distracted by seasonal or cyclical fads, or get caught up in short-term performance. Don’t day trade, and especially not on margin. For every day trader who wins, there is another trader on the other side of the trade who has lost. In this speculative game, its likely that you will on average have as many bad days as good days. If you invest for the long-term, you will be less affected by all the noise in the market that will clutter your thinking and cause you to make impulsive and short-sighted decisions. You will also avoid the tax liability associated with short-term trading that can add more complexity to your finances.

It is never too late for serious investors who want to build long-term wealth to learn and apply the above lessons. With a little bit of discipline, your portfolio too can survive any stock market correction and achieve excellent long-term performance.

Tips for small retail investors to ease their nightmares

Ranjit Sehgal works as a system analyst at one of the top IT companies of India. Apart from forwarding emails, which his job requires him to do, he passionately tracks the domestic equity market. His favourite anecdote about the market until recently was: “Each time the market crashes, if you sell your house and invest in the stock market, in a month, you’ll be able to move a couple of suburbs closer to South Mumbai.”

Two months ago, all you had to do was name a stock and he would have told you its last traded price. You name a brokerage and he would have told you which stocks they were betting on. Any news or rumour, no matter how trivial, as long as it was remotely related to the equity market, he had it covered.

A day didn’t pass by without him arguing, disputing, advising or seeking advice on various message boards on the internet. He was a much sought-after man by friends and acquaintances, who had all heard of his uncanny ability to spot a multi-bagger and wanted to find a better avenue for their cash than the low-risk low-return bank deposit. He followed his own advice and put all the money he had to spare into stocks — for he believed that stocks were king.

But that was then. Today, with the Sensex in a free fall and bears mauling virtually every stock, Ranjit is in a funk. He has not logged on to his demat account for the past couple of days and zaps the business channel the moment it comes on.

His portfolio has lost over half its value and every passing day seems to erode it further. Ditto with the message boards, which are now filled with jokes like: ‘the easiest way to make a million through the stock market is to start with two million’.

He just can’t understand what went wrong. During the past three years, each time the market had corrected sharply, he had bought into it and turned in a heavy profit. He had done his own analysis, mapping the Sensex against the Dow and had been convinced that decoupling was taking place.

This time round, too, he had bought into the Sensex when it first fell in January and sure enough, it had rebounded. Then, when it fell again he bought even more. Unfortunately, it has never recovered since and he suddenly finds himself sitting on a mountain of useless paper.

Most investors are likely to identify with Ranjit’s predicament. Suddenly, that demat account is a nightmare and the fixed deposit a dream investment. While there may be many who are undergoing this traumatic experience for the first time, old market hands will tell you that this is just an umpteenth rerun of greed melting into fear.

The real predicament that they now face is: Where does one go from here? While there is no one-size-fits-all solution, here is some advice that small retail investors can use to mitigate the nightmares they are enduring...

Never hold on to what you won’t buy now

There’s no point in burying your head in the sand like an ostrich and waiting for a miraculous rebound. An active interest in the state of affairs is a must. The first thing you should do is take a long, hard look at your portfolio.

Does it have more of established companies with proven track records, or does it consist more of stocks like Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL), which you bought because they were ‘momentum plays?’

Having done that, get rid of the momentum stocks. After all, with the momentum gone, it’s time for these stocks to go as well. The rule is simple: ‘Never hold on to something that you wouldn’t buy now’ . Never ‘hope’ or ‘pray’ . It is either a ‘buy’ or a ‘sell’.

So, it doesn’t matter at what price you bought such stocks — just dump them and collect whatever cash you can. If you have blue-chips in your portfolio like Reliance Communications, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever or ICICI Bank, to name but a few, you can actually choose not to sell them. In the long run of say, 3-5 years, there is a good chance that you will still earn a return higher than what a bank deposit can give you in the same time period.

Once bitten twice shy

Having lost money in the market, it is but natural that you may have decided to stay away from it totally. That, however, is not such a smart thing to do. As any seasoned investor will tell you, the best time to buy is during a bear market. That said, it is important to keep returns expectations realistic and ensure that you get into stocks, which have a sound business model and visible cash flow. When you invest in a stock, you are basically buying a small stake in a company.

Generally, people tend to ignore this fact. But the moment you ask yourself about the company you want to own, the answer is definitely, Reliance Industries and not Nagarjuna Fertilizers; it is definitely Infosys, but certainly not Himachal Futuristic. It is important to buy stocks for their intrinsic worth and not on the basis of expected short-term gains.

Only fools rush in where angels fear to trade:

If you are someone who was sitting on the fence with cash, praying for a correction, ready to jump in for his first investment in equities, then remember to go easy. For only fools rush in where angels fear to trade. Although buying into a correction is something that has paid rich dividends in the past 3-4 years, the same may not necessarily be the case this time.

With global financial markets in turmoil and a general election looming on the horizon, you would do well not to assume that the market has bottomed out. Just because the stock you were planning to buy has fallen to 50 from 100, doesn’t mean that it cannot go to 25. So, try and enter in a staggered manner. In times such as these, as the saying goes: ‘cash is king’ .

Sense and sensex:

Often, investors get too obsessed with the level of the Sensex and forget to concentrate on the fundamentals of the stocks that they hold. There are umpteen instances of individual stocks underperforming in a bull market and those outperforming even in a bear market.

This is because the index reflects the entire market and does not necessarily reflect what is happening with your stock. So, let analysts talk about Sensex levels while you track your stock. India, still shining:

With the garbage out of the house, we need to decide what stocks to buy, if any. Just because the decoupling theory has been thrown out of the window doesn’t mean that we are absolutely married to the US economy.

Although a slowdown in the US will affect export-oriented industries in India, it will have a limited impact on most of India Inc, since by and large, the India story is about domestic consumption, rather than exports.

And if the Budget is anything to go by, then the government is definitely in a mood to leave more money with consumers. With more money to spend, the sectors that are expected to benefit are consumer durables, FMCG and retail, to name a few.

The relative outperformance that these sectors have shown during the current turbulence is a good indicator that they may well hold their own even in a bear market. For some of ETIG’s top picks within these sectors, take a look at the stock ideas discussed in the current edition.

Money matters:

Lastly, and most importantly, the fact remains that we had an absolutely unbelievable and overtly extended bull run of around five years. During this period, the Sensex went up seven times, with most stocks going up exponentially.

This couldn’t have continued till eternity. But at the same time, this doesn’t mean the end of the world. Equity markets always swing between overexuberance and absolute despair.

So, don’t lose heart; there will be an end to this carnage. But to enjoy the fruits of the next boom, invest in fundamentally sound companies and always have a substantial amount of cash in hand. For, while you can buy a future multi-bagger today, tomorrow it may end up being a lot cheaper.